Associate Professors Michael P. Cary and Wei Pan, Brian Douthit, PhD student, and Yunah Kang, ABSN'20, contributed to "Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Mortality and Allocate Palliative Care for Older Patients With Hip Fracture" in the Journal of the American Medical Directors Association. Other contributors include former DUSON employee Sathya Amarasekara, Farica Zhuang of the Duke Department of Computer Science, Rachel Lea Draelos of the Department of Computer Science and of the School of Medicine and Cathleen S. Colón-Emeric, of Duke Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development and School of Medicine. 

Abstract

Objectives

To evaluate a machine learning model designed to predict mortality for Medicare beneficiaries aged >65 years treated for hip fracture in Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities (IRFs).

Design

Retrospective design/cohort analysis of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility–Patient Assessment Instrument data.

Setting and Participants

A total of 17,140 persons admitted to Medicare-certified IRFs in 2015 following hospitalization for hip fracture.

Measures

Patient characteristics include sociodemographic (age, gender, race, and social support) and clinical factors (functional status at admission, chronic conditions) and IRF length of stay. Outcomes were 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality. We trained and evaluated 2 classification models, logistic regression and a multilayer perceptron (MLP), to predict the probability of 30-day and 1-year mortality and evaluated the calibration, discrimination, and precision of the models.

Results

For 30-day mortality, MLP performed well [acc = 0.74, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.76, avg prec = 0.10, slope = 1.14] as did logistic regression (acc = 0.78, AUROC = 0.76, avg prec = 0.09, slope = 1.20). For 1-year mortality, the performances were similar for both MLP (acc = 0.68, AUROC = 0.75, avg prec = 0.32, slope = 0.96) and logistic regression (acc = 0.68, AUROC = 0.75, avg prec = 0.32, slope = 0.95).

Conclusion and Implications

A scoring system based on logistic regression may be more feasible to run in current electronic medical records. But MLP models may reduce cognitive burden and increase ability to calibrate to local data, yielding clinical specificity in mortality prediction so that palliative care resources may be allocated more effectively.