Candidate Origins of the Recent Stagnation in Midlife Mortality in the United States
This paper offers a new explanation for the alarming trend in midlife mortality observed in the United States since 2000, when death rates among working-age Americans stalled after decades of unprecedented progress. The explanation hinges on a striking parallel with a pattern that emerged just before 1950, in which death rates among children also stalled, ending a period of similarly historic gains. We will show that sustained reductions in both midlife and early-life mortality rates ceased abruptly with the same birth cohort.